Obama ‘Landslide Scenario’ Very Unlikely; 4 In 10 Undecided
Politico is reporting:
“From the fever swamps of the blogosphere to the halls of academia, there is a chorus of voices who have come to the same conclusion about the presidential election: Barack Obama is going to win in November, by something resembling a landslide.
Yet for all the breathless analysis and number-crunching that has convinced observers Obama is en route to an epic victory, there is one key historic fact that is often overlooked-most popular vote landslides were clearly visible by the end of summer. And by that indicator, 2008 doesn’t measure up.
In five of the six post-war landslides (defined as a victory of 10 percentage points or more) the eventual winner was ahead by at least 10 percentage points in the polls at the close of August, according to a Politico analysis of historical Gallup polls. Over the past week, however, Gallup’s daily tracking poll pegs Obama ahead of John McCain by a margin of 2 to 5 percentage points.
The one exception to the August rule was 1980. Ronald Reagan was trailing slightly in the August polls before surging forward to win by roughly a 10-point margin.
By comparison, the biggest post-war landslides-1964, 1972 and 1984-were signaled by a large, double-digit advantage held by the eventual winner at the close of August.” READ MORE
4 in 10 not locked onto a candidate…
The Olympics, summer vacations and back-to-school preparations are overshadowing politics for many right now. That should start changing as and just after the two parties hold their nominating conventions — the Democrats at the end this month, the Republicans in early September.
43% of registered voters have not made final decisions on whom to support, according to a recent Associated Press-Ipsos poll. That includes 15% leaning toward Obama or backing him while saying they could change their minds, and 16% leaning toward McCain, saying they could change their minds. Another 8 percent are completely undecided! Just 4% weakly back third-party candidates Ralph Nader or Bob Barr.
That’s quite a bit more than were uncommitted at this stage in 2004, when an AP-Ipsos poll showed 37 percent in the same category. In that race President Bush, who is more familiar to the public than McCain, was seeking re-election.
All major polling date reflects the results of AP polling, within a few percentage points. It is shaping up to be quite a nail-biter!
Given the geo-political situation of the World, I can’t help thinking this is ultimately going to help McCain, and injure Obama. Why? Because Obama doesn’t do as well as McCain in “unscripted” events, which Obama’s handelers have been avoiding placing their man into. That is why they nixed the “Town Hall” format pushed by McCain. As the election rolls on, they will not have that luxury, and more access to Obama, in unscripted events will not show him as favorably. Also, the PAC’s, and their main media buys haven’t yet hit. There are more negatives to hit the fan about Obama that will leave his campaign in disaray. Count on it.